Kevin's Weblog

This worries me (from Will Saletan):

Kerry led 51-49 in the Ohio exit poll this afternoon. But he also led 51-49 in the Florida exit poll, and we've seen what happened there. Nationwide, the exit polls had Kerry up 51-48. But with 80 million votes counted already, it's Bush who has a 51-48 lead. So at this point, the exit polls are at best meaningless. Or worse, if you're a Democrat, the six-point gap between what the exit polls predicted for Kerry nationally and what the returns show so far means that in Ohio, a two-point lead for Kerry in the exit poll foreshadows a Bush win by as many as four points.

I worry about whether provisional ballots are actually going to be counted, not just in Ohio. In the first nationwide use of them, it seems critical that we count them all. Many people expect them to swing strongly Democratic, and even if it’s not enough to save Kerry (and it probably isn’t), the data is important.

I’m also pretty upset with Kerry’s logic of it being better for the election system to concede. Why is it not better to actually count all the votes? Doesn’t this just tell all the people who might be first-time voters, or move frequently, or whatever reason for casting a provisional, that their vote doesn’t really matter? Do we not want them to vote next time?